Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay and the weird day but I’ll be traveling tomorrow so here we are. Still working on some projects behind the scenes that you guys will see soon. Have some preliminary FA projections (105 of them!) if you guys are into that, starting work on prospect lists, doing some work on THE BOARD and new features with Sean Dolinar, podcast is coming weekly and working on some research for the THT annual and some stuff with Craig Edwards that will be coming in the next week or two that I think you’ll really like. Warning: we will quantify everything, even the stuff you don’t want us to.

Tommy N.: How much do you think Eovaldi gets this offseason? 3 years $40M?

Kiley McDaniel: My guess was 3/45 at first blush, so yeah something like that

Nate: How do scouts balance the “eye test” and analytics when evaluating talent?

Kiley McDaniel: Well that’s about a 5,000 word article if we’re breaking down both how the execs and scouts do it. In short, scouts are instructed by most teams to avoid analytics and allows the professionals in the office to apply them, since some scouts will see tiny sample size hitter split data and apply that info incorrectly and skew the report, for instance. In reality, most teams show scouts exit velos and spin rates so they aren’t in the dark, but they generally don’t know how to use it, so they’re given very basic instructions like “round up if the curveball spin rate is x and you graded it y but it’s a borderline grade,” and stuff like that. On the amateur side it’s almost not used at all by scouts other than the basic stuff you can see like this college hitter is striking out 30% of the time, we all know that’s bad.

GPT: Updated thoughts on Giants front office search?

Kiley McDaniel: Looks like they shot for the moon and went progressive in going after David Stearns, so it would appear everything is on the table and the hire will lean analytically, if not lean strongly that way…if we’re using the binary definition of analytical/traditional

Blurg: Has the “fly ball revolution” been fueled  from the top-down by quants in FO’s who convince players to increase their launch angle or from the bottom-up where players independently increased their launch angle and quants observed and advocate for it?

Kiley McDaniel: I think the idea 1) came from offices, got in the heads of progressive players/coaches, then 2) the open minded (moderate) players/coaches saw the results and starting doing it, then 3) the traditional execs/players/coaches now see there’s some value in it and a) some jump in like the others before them, b) others say well let’s be careful but dip our toes in and c) a smaller group just say this is stupid get off my lawn. Of Broadcasters over the age of 50, about 80% in response c)

mark: Can you freeze the top row of the BOARD please?

Kiley McDaniel: Good call, the update will have the option to show 200 rows, so that’s a reasonable feature to have with it

mark: Do teams give out more information about their draft classes post draft?  Do you have a different feel for certain prospects if you hear different evaluations from teams?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, you get the full story on the hideout guys (limited amount of teams knew about a small school college guy/HS player that didn’t go to showcases) and lots of scouts will tell you this pick came down to the 2-3 players and we picked this one, or agents will say this team was really aggressive on this player relative to the rest of the market, teams tell you the pick they had lined up but another team took the player right in front of them, etc. We’ll never report most of it, but it’s useful to have these narratives for players we didn’t have complete info on before the draft.

mark: Are there certain teams that you think scouts very well compared to others, and if they draft a certain player does it make you go back and take a second look or re-evaluate if they had a higher grade?

Kiley McDaniel: Eric and I (and the rest of the industry) definitely have teams in our heads (we mention them pretty often) that we think are better than others. If they’re really on a player we both don’t like, we’ll take a step back more than we would if a team we think doesn’t do a good job take them. But we still won’t change the grade until we get some real data (a summer of out of character performance, we see a tool that we didn’t before) to justify changing it.

duder: How far off is the statistical analysis in the public sphere as opposed to internal analysis of teams? Obviously they have more data, but what kind of reports and numbers are they privy to?

Kiley McDaniel: The makeup info and trackman data is like 90% of it. We have comparable reports to most teams on most players, they’ll just have a little more detail, see them more often. And the really advanced teams will have other data on top of this, like super advanced trackman analysis, sports science stuff, biomechanical analysis from high speed video, etc. but lots of teams either don’t really do that stuff or it’s a small part of th eval. Teams don’t get medicals on opposing players until a trade has been agreed to and we usually hear about a grisly/disputed medical for amateur player after the draft, so we aren’t even super behind on medical info for top prospects

duder: How realistic is for the Braves to go with Austin Riley at 3B next year? Or do you see him going to LF or being trade bait?

Kiley McDaniel: Mentioned on the last podcast when we talked about this (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-…) that having Dansby/Camargo/Riley for SS and 3B means that if they all hit at once, you can move one (either Riley to RF or Camargo to super utility, most likely)

Kiley McDaniel: Going back to the Giants GM discussion now that I see this MLBTR report: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/the-giants-gm-search.html

Kiley McDaniel: I’d guess (you could dispute any one of these) that Sawdaye/Arnold/Bloom/Stearns/Elias would all be in the progressive pool, McLeod/Byrnes/Ng probably more moderate/blend pool

duder: Do you have any aspirations to return to work inside baseball? What kind of situation would it take to bring you back into it?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, in the right situation, but that situation is much more specific now than it was last time. Don’t think it will come along for a little while at least.

Rocket man: Pick a  19/20 year olds  to shoot thru  the minors and  called up to majors next year?

Kiley McDaniel: Well Vlad, Tatis and Royce are all 19 right now and, in that order, could/will be in the bigs soon. Wander Franco as a 17 year old is the real longshot https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board

Fritz Ferter: Which player draws a better return, Paxton, segura, or Diaz?

Kiley McDaniel: Did a whole ranking of this in July. I actually had Haniger over the group then, but those four are all pretty close https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-1-to-10/

Joser: What teams are doing the coolest, ‘you wouldn’t believe me if I told you’ stuff with the minors and player development?

Kiley McDaniel: I actually talked to some guys this week that are really on top of this stuff and we tried to make a list of the teams that are clearly doing a good job, really making progress, more good than bad, etc. and we came up with like 6 teams? Trying to recall the list, but LAD, NYY, CLE, MIL, SD, HOU (notice a trend?) were all on there. Just as many are clearly doing poorly and I’d say more than 5 are in the middle of a concerted effort to overhaul (like double digit personnel changes) what they have to catch up with that top group

Kiley McDaniel: Trust me, GMs that aren’t running one of those top 5-6 or however many teams are in the top tier are acutely aware that they are behind and most of them are actively trying to get there. Some are still in denial, but not that many.

Jason: I’m just curious what you think of the recent trend of pulling starters earlier and earlier? Do you think this is a change that has been a long time coming, or do you think it is more so a reflection of the offensive/pitching talent at this point with hitters possibly becoming smarter and pitchers seemingly falling more and more into only 2 pitch guys (though maybe it’s always been like that with pitching being hard)?

Kiley McDaniel: To me, it’s like you’ve been playing some board game with your friends forever, then you all find some game theory analysis (lets’ say of Monopoly) with all the odds and it points to a clear best way to play the game. You’re all going to lean that way and maybe the game is less fun since there’s less variance in strategies but in reality its the same game, you’re just forced to be better/more creative with a sharper focus, since everyone is doing similar stuff.

Kiley McDaniel: Now imagine that four of you are playing and one guy thinks all those odds things are stupid. He might win sometimes, especially if it’s a game that takes 20 minutes and he gets lucky, but eventually he’s going to be the clear loser of the group. I’m analytical in how I do stuff like that, so finding the best edge and best implementation and folding in reading people on top of that is interesting to me, but I totally get that maybe an older guy that’s played Monopoly one way for 30 years thinks this is all dumb and hates how the game is played now. Doesn’t make it the wrong strategy, he just needs to play with other people that play like him and he’ll probably like it again. Winning tends to fix things.

Kiley McDaniel: Tying it back to your question, there’s more prep materials and players are getting bigger and more talented so eventually, with steroids off the table, strategy is where everyone goes to get an edge. This was inevitable.

duder: How much sharing of Milb Trackman Data is there in baseball? Do you see it ever being available to the public?

Kiley McDaniel: Like 95% of stadiums have it and all the teams essentially get all of the info from every stadium (except the DSL), practically speaking. Teams pay six figures a year for the data so unless MLB wants to foot the seven figure a year bill for all 30 teams and make it public, I can’t imagine it ever does. There’s a chance MLB puts statcast in minor league parks but I don’t think that’s coming anytime soon.

SAL fan: is there any concern with Kelenic that he may have a Rutherfordish trajectory?   I recall Blake being a pretty polished old-for-his class bat that did very well in the Appy, and then struggled since.

Kiley McDaniel: Rutherford was a tweener guy that lost a step and became a corner guy and Kelenic is a CF that could possibly lose a step, but seems less likely to do that given his build. He’s also not as old as BR was and was generally seen as having a slightly superior combo of tools and performance, but they are in the same ballpark

Kiley McDaniel: I also think Kelenic has a little better game power potential in his swing than Rutherford does even now

Adam Henderson: Hi Kiley, this is a specific question on Wander Franco. I have read many reports on his feats at his age but can you give me an insight on his tools and how he might be this advanced at this age and with the influx of impactful youth from D.R. do we need to set the bar higher on J2 signees?

Kiley McDaniel: Franco is one of the rare kids that was clearly the best in his age group at like 14 and further is one of the rare ones to still be the best at 17. The tool grades are wacky, something like 70 hit, future 60 raw, 60-70 run, can probably be a 50 at SS, 60 arm

Kiley McDaniel: The list of guys that are super elite at 14 and perform at a super elite level in the pros at 17 is reaaaaaly short. Vlad Jr. is another one. These are just rare, every 5-10 year prospects that happen to be in a glut right now

Kiley McDaniel: Juan Soto got the 21st highest bonus in his class, he doesn’t even qualify for this and neither does Tatis Jr.

Frank Lyman from Amherst: Is the Pads system really really good or just really good?

Kiley McDaniel: Pretty sure it’s #1 right now, but I’ll have a better answer soon

James: Jeff Fletcher said that Suarez and Marsh could get the conversation going for Realmuto, does that sound reasonable or is that way too light?

Kiley McDaniel: Just those two is very light. Archer didn’t make the top 50 trade value rankings this year and Realmuto was in the 20’s I believe. Glasnow/Meadows/Baz may not get Realmuto, although today, maybe it would.

Hinkie: Have you heard anything on Yusei Kikuchi?  Is he more likely to sign with a west coast team?  What kind of contract can he expect?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m thinking 4 years, 10-15M area, but probably the lower end of that scale given there’s a posting fee

Mike: I just traded Jacob Nottingham for Ross Stripling in my dynasty league. Did I do well?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s a really deep league

Dan: If Riley Greene hits enough in the spring, can he be a top 5 pick or will the defensive profile limit him? For comparison’s sake, was Kyle Tucker seen as a future corner outfielder at the time of the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Tucker was seen that way, Greene is comparable but not quite as loose at the plate. I would guess 6-10 for Greene, but right around there.

Ryan: Buy or Sell: We will see a HS Righty Pitcher go 1-1 within the next 10 years

Kiley McDaniel: Sell

Eminor3rd: I heard you guys mention Dennis Sarfate on one of your recent podcasts. Idk if it’s terribly interesting, but: He isn’t coming over. He just had a legendary season last year and was given a three year contract by Fukuoka. In interviews, he mentioned that he had weighed taking one more stab at the MLB or staying in the NPB, knowing he only had one more contract in him, and chose the NPB. I could be wrong but I think I remember they’re paying him like ~$3mm per year, which is a lot for a foreign RP. He’s very popular. Also, he missed most of this past season with a pretty serious hip injury. He is expected to be ready to go for the start of the 2019 season. His nickname is “King of Closer” which is not a typo. They don’t put an S at the end of “closer.” The fans have banners and merchandise that say it. It’s great.

Kiley McDaniel: Well there ya go, one less guy throwing 100 in the big leagues

Kimbrel Questioner: What value would it take to aquire Edwin Diaz? Groome + Chavis? Asking for a friend.

Kiley McDaniel: Way more than that. For reference, Archer and Diaz were pretty close on the trade value list, both just missing it.

Rick Hahn: Rutschman or Baylor catcher better pick?  We need a great catcher.

Kiley McDaniel: Rutschman by a good margin right no

explain: what’s the best way to go about looking for a job at the winter meetings? is there any particular person within an org (dir of baseball ops, farm director, etc) you should target? and is there a less anxiety-provoking way than simply approaching them while they’re mingling in a group of people?

Kiley McDaniel: email them ahead of time and try to find the person that’s running the interviews/hiring for the intern jobs that are open

explain: would an asst GM/farm director be impressed if you approached them and said you were capable of giving a one-paragraph synopsis of each of the team’s top 50 prospects (off the top of your head, of course)?

Kiley McDaniel: not really

Roger: What good does an MLB pitching coach do? Do teams generally aim for a philosophy for all of their pitchers vs. focusing on the strengths and weaknesses of each one? (Thinking of Chuck Hernandez and some of the criticisms I’ve read within the Braves’ fans community.)

Kiley McDaniel: MLB hitting/pitching coaches are much more psychologist/babysitter/ego manager/confidence builder, etc. than they are mechanical change artists that are tweaking half the roster at the same time. Players often handle that stuff themselves and ask coaches/video guys for help at times. Players that are performing pretty well generally get left alone and want to be left alone

Mike: Are there any other notable int’l FAs besides the Mesas and Sandy Gaston? The Red Sox traded for more space on signing day and still have about about 1 million left in space (and could trade up for even more). Do you think that will go unused?

Kiley McDaniel: It won’t go unused, but just spent of a bunch of 50K to 500K types that we generally haven’t heard of because they’re late-peaking 17-19 year olds or just lower profile 16 year olds. More on that here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-mesa-gaston-workout/

Ybored at work: CJ Cron had 30 HR and 122 wRC+ last year and probably has no trade value whatsoever. How can that be?

Kiley McDaniel: R/R 1B/DH coming off a career year, generally peak early, get paid in arb more than they do in the open market in many cases…not a good type of player to be

Kiley McDaniel: well, right now. maybe that will change

RickDickNick: Going forward, is Tyler O’Neil regular corner OF, or a bench-bat with power?

Kiley McDaniel: He was top 100 for us, comfortably, for the last 12 months at least

Kiley McDaniel: so, regular

Kiley McDaniel: maybe well above average

Andrew: I know the draft is 8 months away, but is Rutschmann more of Bryce Harper prohibitive favorite to go 1-1 or more like a Brady Singer that could easily fall?

Kiley McDaniel: Between Singer and Harper in terms of consensus-ness and odds he’ll fall

Kiley McDaniel: Singer was one of the lowest-rated consensus preseason #1s

JB: are teams now looking to hire scouts who *are* fluent in the exit velo and spin rate data?

Kiley McDaniel: Eh, again, teams don’t really want scouts to write reports where they mix in their own data analysis, but knowing that a scout won’t discount it and likely will be young/cheap if he/she is into data, then yes, they will hire you

Blue Jay Matt: Is Kelly Johnson a good comp for Cavan Biggio’s upside or do you see more or less?

Kiley McDaniel: Eh, somewhere around there, one of the many versions of Kelly Johnson

LPFan: What other characteristics can make a prospect with 90 mph FB successful in big leagues today? Do you think not throwing hard from onset helps his career longevity or in-season durability?

Kiley McDaniel: plus change, plus command seems like a minimum to be successful and hang around, probably even more than that

Jay: Do scouts/sources on teams try to pitch public prospect people to mislead other teams about prospects or draftees?

Kiley McDaniel: yeah but Eric and I have been at this long enough that we know which ones do that and generally don’t talk to them. Some execs see the media as an adversary (don’t answer, which is fine, I judge that as a neutral) and/or something to be conquered into doing your bidding (answer only when they have something to push, and only give that) and we have no time for that. multiple GMs fit this description, by the way.

Brian: If a “smart” team like the Dodgers, Yankees or Astros call and ask about a player in a trade, should that change how the other team views that player? In other words, when will the Reds stop answering the Dodgers calls?

Kiley McDaniel: I know a “smart” team that asked a less “smart” team about a random, seemingly generic reliever like 5+ years ago, a youngish AAA/MLB shuttle type that even fans of that team probably didn’t care about. The less “smart” team was like wait a minute why do you want him and refused to trade him just on that basis. The team kept him and he went from generic into a legit contributor, was later traded for by multiple “smart” teams when he got expensive in arb. Original “smart” team never got him.

mark: A while back someone (I think you did) mentioned that the Yankees are doing something different to get more velocity out of pitchers but you (they) couldn’t figure out what?  Have you figured it out? (a yes or no is fine if you can’t disclose specifics)

Kiley McDaniel: I’m not even sure its one crazy trick and I’m pretty sure it isn’t. I think it’s just the residue of a good process on scouting and development

Pickle Nick: Do teams keep data on scouts’ or cross-checkers success rates in finding amateur players? It seems like it would be a useful thing during the hiring process, to know about if you’re gonna poach a scouting talent.

Kiley McDaniel: Discuss this periodically but it turns out it takes multiple contracts (most scouts are on 1-year deals, maybe 2) to determine if the scout was good in his first year and you’ve already promoted/resigned him multiple times at that point and maybe he sucked his first year but now he’s goot and you need to wait 5 more years to find out if that’s right…it’s just not feasible in an empirical way. Anecdotally keeping track of if lists seem good a year or two later, or the process, communication, etc. is much easier and is what the industry has been doing for awhile

mark: Can you shed some light on the trade discussions that happen when prospects are involved?  Is there a back and forth involving grades on tolls, and FV and the like?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s usually just yes/no on a group of names until both sides figure out “oh it’s this tier of prospect and they think these couple guys are better/worse than we do”

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Does Kowar have middle of the rotation stuff if the breaker or command gets to average?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, probably, but that’s been the issue for over 2 years now

Ken Lay: if Wander Franco meets all of those tool grades, would he be a 70+ overall? Or even more?

Kiley McDaniel: yeah, would fall in that 65 to 70 FV area as a prospect, could work into 80 FV like Acuna, Soto, Judge and some others have shown pretty quickly in MLB career

Davoink Showerhandel: Would you speak on Nick Madrigal’s power potential?  His power production in the minors was non-existent, but I think that might be effected by his hand/wrist injury, exhaustion from the college season, etc.  Realize he’s not gonna be a masher, but can he do a .150 ISO in the majors in the future?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a 40 raw power guy that could grow into 45 with maturation, health, better balls/bat, etc

Kiley McDaniel: has bat control to turn 45 raw into 50 game, which is 15-18 homers. I wouldn’t expect that, but it’s on the table

RunawaYEM: Would you give up Cristian Pache as a headliner for for Realmuto?  What type of package from ATL would it take?

Kiley McDaniel: I would not, you could put a pretty solid three prospect group together without having to include him

Ken Lay: Would an asst GM/farm director be impressed if I threw a shuriken over their head at 110+ mph, in turn, pinning my business card to the wall?

Kiley McDaniel: That would turn some heads, yes

Ken Lay: do you see a lot of burnout in baseball ops? From what I understand (please correct me as necessary), the pay is low and the hours are long for entry positions, so I’m guessing a fair number of people may overestimate their love of the game?

Kiley McDaniel: YEP, although some people worked so hard to get that entry level gig that they’re in denial about their lifestyle/chances for advancement, general position in life. There aren’t a bunch of people quitting in their 20s but a decent amount leave when that clearly more lucrative/more time off sort of job comes along

Jamie Ryan: what’s the average pay of a first-year scout?  are they at all reimbursed for travel expenses?

Kiley McDaniel: Depends, but full time scout like 45-50K and all expenses and benefits and pretty sweet travel points, too. Often you have to intern or part-time or hybrid roles a year or two to get the full gig and those are like 15-25K depending on the situation

Davoink Showerhandel: When you say a player, like Cron, is a R/R guy, does the throwing “R” matter?  I wouldn’t think a R/L would have any less value than a R/R

Kiley McDaniel: Throwing lefty is a little better at 1B, but not a huge deal

Kiley McDaniel: Scouts always verbally talk about that kind of player as “right-right” so that’s usually how we write it, too. 2 syllables is about the shortest wait to say right handed hitter

Slothrop: Do you have to pay for your own travel

Kiley McDaniel: The dark overlord picks up those costs

NA: How do fv grades handle extreme platoon splits with hitters?

Kiley McDaniel: we round down some if the guy, like a LHH 1B that we think is platoon only unless he’s like 60 hit/power, looks like he’s overwhelming likely to be only a platoon player as that limits the upside

Kiley McDaniel: Nate Lowe comes to mind as a version of that

Kiley McDaniel: Jake Bauers wasn’t since he can also play a solid RF, above average 1B and is seen as a better hit tool guy and not a slam dunk platooner

Kiley McDaniel: platoon isn’t as important if there’s secondary skills, like Coco Crisp. may eventually apply to Corey Ray

LudeBurger: Oh, Kiley you’re so fine, you blow my mind, hey Kiley!

Kiley McDaniel: oh no we’re there already

Dusty: WANDER JAVIER!

Kiley McDaniel: the only acceptable place for a Wander Javier mention

Kiley McDaniel: See you guys next week!

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here. Some quick plugging of things I’ve done lately

Kiley McDaniel: Podcast with
1. Jeff Passan on sign stealing
2. Eric and I about structuring a scouting dept
3. Jake Mintz of Cespedes Family BBQ on the ballad of Barbecue Yee
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-…

Kiley McDaniel: The even orgs most likely to win the next 5 world series: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-who-will-win-the-next-five-world…

Kiley McDaniel: I tweeted this morning that it sounds like Doug Melvin is the favorite for the Mets job (though it obviously isn’t a done deal yet):

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

Heard from multiple sources last night that Doug Melvin is now the clear favorite for the Mets GM job

24 Oct 2018

Kiley McDaniel: Lastly, I just bought a house and am currently dealing with contractors. May not recommend that one, but it’s what I’ve been doing

Tommy N.: Do you think the Reds will eventually trade Eugenio Suarez with Nick Senzel and Jonathan India waiting in the background?

Kiley McDaniel: No, they’ll just find spots for those guys. They’re all 3B ideal fits, but all of them can play a passable 2B and obviously Senzel is playing some CF now. Too many good players is never a bad thing

Will H.: Which is more brutal weather wise; a summer day scouting in the AZL or a summer day scouting in the GCL?

Kiley McDaniel: GCL is way worse; it’s all noon starts with 100% humidity and often rain in the 2nd half of the game, almost no stands/shade/elevation. AZL is night starts, often in stadiums, with no humidity

Garrett: Advice for a college sophomore wanting to get into a front office? Is it too early for an internship? Also what can I do now to help myself?

Garrett: Any tips for a soon-to-be college grad applying for these MLB QA internships?

Kiley McDaniel: These things only get more competitive, so you have to stand out, with either public research that breaks new ground, or skills like spanish or SQL that separate from a generic graduate with some ambitions but not much on a resume

Mike: With the Mesas and Sandy Gaston signed, who is the top IFA left (if any)?

Kiley McDaniel: Have referenced this in a few places, but there’s basically no consensus $500K+ prospects left right now. Asia is light, there may be some hideout guys in Mexico but that is contingent on MLB opening the country pretty quickly (which is unlikely).

Kiley McDaniel: 17-19 year old latin prospects always develop late and pop up in the middle six figures, some new Cubans may pop up, etc. but there isn’t a guy right now and there isn’t even a Cuban name that’s widely known that teams are waiting on–that market is pretty barren, which is why most of the new ones you hear about are 16 years old with no track record. That age group is where the Cuban talent hasn’t been picked over yet.

Eric Blair : What is Vlad Jr. worth in terms of other players in a very hypothetical trade?

Kiley McDaniel: I posed this question on twitter this week and the results were about what Eric/Craig Edwards/I expected. We’d lean 55% or so to Vlad and the public leans a little harder bc he’s 1) famous 2) the HOU guys aren’t really famous 3) Tucker was bad in a short MLB look 4) fans always lean to the better player anyway

Kiley McDaniel:

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

Whose six controlled years would you rather have?

#1 overall prospect
OR
#8 and #12

All three are big league read… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

16 Oct 2018

Kiley McDaniel: so if Vlad is a comfortable favorite over 8+12, that gives you a pretty good idea of what a “fair” trade would be

Rays: With Brendan McKay struggling with his hitting, should the Rays continue to let McKay hit or let him pitch for now on?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s still top 150-200 overall as simply a hit/power first baseman, so obviously no. To have a guy be that good as a hitter and clearly better as a pitcher is insanely rare and there’s plenty of ways to deploy that, most commonly suggested as a rotation guy that DHs whenever possible like Shohei Ohtani started as

Kiley McDaniel: Saving a roster spot and creating two solid regulars with one spot is incredibly valuable, especially for a small market team. That’s why TB is trying this with Tanner Dodson (2018 2nd rounder RHP/RF) and I would bet they try it with other guys

Hello: Peter Alonso for Paul Goldschmidt.  Who says no?

Kiley McDaniel: Pretty good one

Kiley McDaniel: Goldschmidt is 31, has 1 year left at $14.5M and his last three years have been 5.0, 5.2, 5.1 WAR (with a 7.2 right behind that)

Kiley McDaniel: if he’s open market for only one year deals, he would get like about $30M

Kiley McDaniel: so that’s $16M in surplus value, maybe a little more since competing teams could see him as the missing piece

Kiley McDaniel: We’ll be sharing more on this soon, but I’d say Alonso is worth about $25-30M

Kiley McDaniel: So, since it’s only one year, the Mets say no (plus the Mets probably aren’t trying to go for it in 2019). But if it was 2 years and it was a contender that was trading Alonso, it probably flips the other way

Kiley McDaniel: I go through this example because we will have a lot more in the coming weeks about the math behind instances such as this

Mac: If you and Eric were able to hire a 3rd person for your prospect team and locate him/her anywhere in the country/world you wish, where would it be most beneficial (excluding the obvious Dominican Republic)?

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure there’s a clear answer. Obviously middle of the country like Texas would be good. Hot spots that would also help like SoCal (Eric can still get there easily) and NC/GA/FL (I live in one and can get to the other two pretty easily) don’t make quite as much sense. Northeast has a lot of pro stuff for 5 months but not a whole lot else. Major city in Texas with the ability to get into the Midwest via car is probably the answer

mark: Do you think AJ Preller would prefer one gm candidate over another, under the assumption that he is trying to trade for Noah Syndergaard. More broadly, do you think it is easier for say him and an analytics driven guy to come together, or do you think he would be able to make a better deal with a more old school type of gm.

Kiley McDaniel: I think a more analytically-inclined GM will be more likely to want to sell/rebuild while he rebuilds the front office/processes and that GM would also have different opinions about players than AJ, so a deal would be easier (this would generally apply to Chaim Bloom). I would not assume Doug Melvin would trade arguably their best player in his first winter.

Kiley McDaniel: And I don’t think anyone knows what Brodie would do with the big decisions, other than wear Gucci loafers

Judson Castro: You moved again?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, bought a house in Atlanta, will be all settled in before the holidays. Shouldn’t really change what sort of games I get to going forward other than a little more SEC/ACC and a little less Florida State League

Loogie: What are Peter Alonso’s odds of success in the majors. Does he have AJ Reed downside?

Kiley McDaniel: Every 1B-only prospect has that risk. I’d say there’s a good chance that he has 2-3 good years in his first 3-4 seasons. Not sure how well that type of player will age

Kiley McDaniel: And there’s a chance the defense is a real problem, which could undermine his role, especially with a traditional manager/GM

Jay: How much if any, do AZL level prospects have in terms of trade value? Asking specifically about players in Cleveland’s system like Valera and Rocchio, since their system lacks a lot of high-end talent at the upper levels to use in trades this offseason.

Kiley McDaniel: Not every team scouts those leagues enough or trusts the TrackMan enough to really pay a lot in trades, but that changes once there’s a full season in Low-A of performance and the associated data. Referenced this in who will win the next 5 WS article. I think those guys have much wider appeal starting around the deadline next summer and going forward

Nico: Has Hoerner or Justin Steele’s AFL performance shifted your valuations for either of them? Have seen various reports on Steele’s velocity/stuff.

Kiley McDaniel: You can ask Eric for details since I haven’t seen him, but he wasn’t super enthused by Steele. We already had Hoerner pretty high, but sounds like he’s been solid

Slurve: When top 1st round prospects “fail”, other than injury, what are some of the causes (given how much research and exposure they usually provide, etc.)

Kiley McDaniel: Being less athletic usually via weight gain and having tools/velo back up, not being able to lay off/identify off speed pitches (“can’t hit”), awful makeup that impacted work ethic

Frank: Does Anthony Kay have mid-rotation upside, or is he more likely to top out as a 4/5 starter?

Kiley McDaniel: B

Quinn: Does Christin Stewart have a realistic shot at 30 homers in his peak? What kind of power do you see out of him in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, 25-30 is reasonable, but the bar at DH is so high that he has to do that and also get on base

Buster: Which team do you think is best situated to cash in its prospects this winter in a big trade (ala Milwaukee last year)?

Kiley McDaniel: Atlanta is positioned but I don’t think they’re itching to empty the cupboard. Tampa Bay is crazy deep and has a good club, so they seem more likely to try it just to consolidate into fewer assets like STL did last year with Ozuna

Greyson: Keith Law said the Tigers were among the teams most far behind analytically. Do you agree, and if so are they at least moving in the right direction relative to other teams?

Kiley McDaniel: They were definitely bottom 5 when Avila took over and they are moving in the right direction, but it’s a reaaaally long way from bottom 5 to top 5

Rox Fan: Odds that the Rockies can extend Arenado this winter? And if they cannot get an extension they should trade him, right?

Kiley McDaniel: Discussed this situation recently in a podcast (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-…) and i think he would’ve signed an extension already if he was open to that. I think he wants to test the market and with Story/Rodgers/Hampson, the Rockies have cheaper replacements

Kiley McDaniel: But if they think they’re gonna make the playoffs again in 2019 and want to try to keep him and will take the comp picks if they don’t…then they’ll just hold

Frank: Whens the new top prospect list dropping?

Kiley McDaniel: Post WS. We’re already working on them, so a few will be done before they come out.

Anthony: Can scouts at all forecast pitcher injury risk based on the eye test, or is that something entirely random or only possible with biomechanical tracking?

Kiley McDaniel: Can’t imagine it’s any better than a monkey throwing darts if that’s all you’re using. Throwing in medical history, velocity, biomechanical, etc. does a much better job and still nobody really knows

Matt: No question, I just love your “As Yet Untitled” podcast with Longenhagen – thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: This guy gets it

Lefty: Are the Giants just covering all their bases by kicking every tire, or is the looming shadow of Sabean staying in the organization dissuading bright candidates from taking the job?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think that’s the case. Sounds like they want a new head honcho and Sabean will be stepping back

Kiley McDaniel: But if ownership wants a winner and doesn’t want to rebuild, some people may not want to step into that

Ghost of Ned Yost: I know these questions are difficult but I’m trying to build a model to figure out what teams place the most value on ceiling especially when it comes to starting pitching. Who are some arms outside the top say 75-80 that could become an ace caliber if everything clicks? Like the DL Halls, Pearsons and Matt Mannings types.

Kiley McDaniel: Outside of the top 100: Cole Winn, Shane Baz, Riley Pint, Luis Medina, Mason Denaburg…there’s really not that many.

Kiley McDaniel: This is another topic that we have some stuff to share with the readers during the offseason list process

Jo-Nathan: What should the Orioles do with their international cap now that they whiffed on the Mesa’s and Gaston?

Kiley McDaniel: Sign 20 guys for an average of 200K and you just spent $4M to give yourself much better rookie ball talent

Stevil: If Atlanta trades pitching prospects to address holes on the field, who do you believe is most likely to be dangled?

Kiley McDaniel: Would not be surprised is Sean Newcomb is the top name that gets dangled

Nicholas: What did you think of the Mets considering a couple player agents as potential GMs?  Do you think agents in general would be good baseball ops personnel?

Kiley McDaniel: Unless I know specifically otherwise, I would assume any agent with no front office experience would be overwhelmed in a GM job

UNLESS they are self-aware enough to recognize that ahead of time and surround themselves with smart people that they can delegate to and do more of a CEO decision maker type thing. In that case, I think some agents could possibly succeed. Not sure any of them have that kind of humility right out of the chute, from my experiences with that sort.

JD: If you’re a rebuilding team like the Tigers and Reds, do any FA pitchers fly under the radar that might be worth a chance and a deadline flip next July? I remember all last year everyone raved about Tyler Chatwood’s uptick in velo and spin (woops) and I’m wondering if there’s someone underrated that’s seen positive trends that might get a flyer.

Kiley McDaniel: Steady veteran relievers is the best demographic to invest in FA for a rebuilding team interested in flips

Kiley McDaniel: Or buy low/one year deal/prove it types with some upside. Rich Hill back in the day is an example of this.

Jo-Nathan: I know a lot of J2 news seems to come out late November, when can we expect to see the 2019 J2 list added to THE BOARD?

Kiley McDaniel: February at the earliest (when I see many of them in the DR), still probably within a month or so of J2

Guest: What is it about Mackenzie Gore that makes him such a better prospect than Luis Patino?  Patino is younger, performed better at the same level, and throws harder.

Kiley McDaniel: Gore is left-handed with more track record and he’s bigger, probably a little more athletic

Ybored at work: Does Wander Franco’s bat compare to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

Kiley McDaniel: Not quite as good, but closer than people think. And obviously the speed/defense/position is light years better

Matt: Coming out of high school, what were the differences between Parker and Austin Meadows?

Kiley McDaniel: Parker was bigger/faster, probably a little more power, too, but less track record of hitting and much bigger questions on the contact ability

Kiley McDaniel: VVM (not publishing the question): the Almora-Mesa comp is everywhere. I talked to multiple scouts after the Mesa workout and they all said Almora was the best comp they could come to. One director who has signed many Cubans said it was “a perfect comp.” Maybe he ends up as another kind of player (that’s kinda the nature of projections/scouting), but it isn’t a debate that lots of people think this.

JD: To follow up on Garrett, any advice for a compsci graduate student who’s interned with two teams (video), has pretty decent coding experience on the side, but still doesn’t feel he stands out.

Kiley McDaniel: Spanish would be the last thing I’d recommend. And being around, but not annoying to, powerful people in the game

iggy: you can learn SQL in like two weeks can’t you? I’ve always heard that and R are a lot easier than say a Python

Kiley McDaniel: Took me months to get comfortable with it, but learning the basics isn’t that hard. Never really got into those other two very much.

Mark: Any word on who the Orioles are looking at to run their organization?

Kiley McDaniel: The buzz is traditional/older types, but they’re also talking to moderate/younger types. Some buzz than Angelos wants to hand over control to one person to run all of baseball ops, but you can understand if the candidates are dubious, with the track record, the sons around and Brady Anderson lurking.

Jason: There is some talk that Rays may not protect Joe McCarthy on the 40 man before the Rule V draft this offseason. Does that sound crazy to you? I mean the Rays are obviously a smart org, but that their depth might actually lead to a player like that reaching the Rule V draft?

Kiley McDaniel: He would definitely get taken, probably with the top pick. They should trade him if they aren’t going to protect him. I would heavily guess they protect him.

Kiley McDaniel: I can’t remember the last time a 45 FV type prospect wasn’t protected. Tyler Goeddel was a solid 40 FV when he was unprotected, that was somewhat surprising at the time and he went 1st.

Jason: The Braves surplus of pitching talent is starting to cause a logjam.  Whom do you trade assuming it’s an outfield slugger or established #1 type starter ?  Would you start a package w soroka or Wright ?

Kiley McDaniel: I think J.T. Realmuto would be the big fish if they made a big move. I wouldn’t trade those guys, but a Realmuto trade would have to have 1-2 uncomfortable names included.

Andrew: Which Braves pitching prospect makes the most sense in a 1-for-1 swap for Madison Bumgarner?

Yadi: What type of package could Madison Bumgarner fetch?

Kiley McDaniel: 1yr $12M on Bumgarner. Allard/Wentz/Muller are right in that range on a 1-for-1.

37: Not sure if you mind pitching your podcast again, but people should listen to the podcast, if only for the Barbecue Yee segment, which was one of the funniest things I’ve heard in sports this year.

Kiley McDaniel: I thought so too! (that’s segment 3 from the most recent episode, linked at the top)

Joe: Please continue to talk about how scouting staffs, player development staffs and front office staffs are set up. I find that fascinating. Also please keep reporting on who teams are hiring for those departments, with invites on what the hires mean for those teams!

Kiley McDaniel: Ok we will! Seems like we’ve found a niche with absurd baseball stories, front office chatter and Jeff Passan repartee

Boyfred Boi: Challenge trade:  Dan Vogelbach for Dominic Smith?

Kiley McDaniel: Smith is much better, Vogelbach is a DH

opie: why would teams not trust TrackMan? Do you just mean in small doses?

Kiley McDaniel: Correct and things like power (measured via exit velo) rise as teenagers get to be older, thus there’s less projection necessary. When Acuna was an 18 year old CF with tons of 105+ and 110+ balls, that how you knew he was special, at least in that one way. There’s young hitters that are high on prospect lists that can’t really hit the ball 105+, but there’s belief that they will in a few years.

Bailey: I stay up at night not being able to sleep because I am beyond excitement regarding Drew Waters.  Am I wrong to be THIS excited? He seems like a superstar.

Kiley McDaniel: I’d tone it down a bit, but that’s on the table

Boyfred Boi: It would appear that Vladimir Guerrero Jr is not challenged by the AFL.  Are the Jays going to keep him in AAA for 2 months to start the year?

Kiley McDaniel: I would bet exactly 11 days

Jake: Just started reading about Kristian Robinson and Ronny Mauricio.  Do you consider both those guys as having huge ceilings?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes. KR is an NFL WR type toolset and RM is a big SS that can do almost anything you want him to.

Ray: So if you were the Astros, would you be a believer in Kyle Tucker to take the LF job next year and run with it? Luhnow didn’t seem to indicate adding offense is a priority this winter, which kind of made me think he must feel like one of Tucker/Fisher/Davis/someone will ultimately break out there

Kiley McDaniel: He’s as good a bet as a free agent bat on a multi year deal akin to Josh Reddick, there just may be a month or two to break in Tucker.

That Time?: THAT. TIME.

Kiley McDaniel: oh man it is

Jeff Sullivan: Kiley Kiley Bo-Biley Na-fana-fo-Filey Me-my-mo-Miley.  Kiley!

Kiley McDaniel: thanks jeff

Jo-Nathan: I know a lot

Doritos Locos Tacos: DORITOS. LOCOS. TACOS.

Kiley McDaniel: oh damn i could go for one of those rn

Kiley McDaniel: Coming to you from Florida for one last time, it’s Kileychat

Mets: We hired an agent…. WTF? honestly, I don’t see how even a regular GM would see anything but a full teardown as the only option.

Kiley McDaniel: The Brodie Van Wagenen hire is definitely one drawing some conversation around the game. It’s definitely not normal to have a GM that is recused from talking contract extension with your best player. The game has also changed so much in the last 5-10 years and agents have almost no exposure to all of these new facets.

I’m not saying they/Brodie don’t understand the stats we talk about here, but you’ll need to staff up/direct an R+D department, know their blind spots, hire scouts, hire coaches, etc. Not every GM is good at this, but how can we expect BVW to be good at this right away with no prior exposure to any of it, working with people he essentially doesn’t know? We also don’t know what sort of personnel decisions he’ll make, whom he’ll hire/fire in the front office…there’s just a lot of questions.

Kiley McDaniel: He could be good–I don’t want to be cast as knocking the hire just due to lack of information about him–but it just seems like an odd decision and one that’s impossible to judge for awhile.

Walter O’Malley : Which is worse for pitcher health? Throwing 100 mph or throwing 100 pitches?

Kiley McDaniel: 100 mph. That’s the biggest known cause of arm injuries. Rest between starts would go way ahead of pitches per start in terms of importance for predicting injuries. There’s a reason relievers get used 2-3 days in a row and blow out more often.

James Brandon: If you were a GM, how much (if any) effort would you put into scouting independent leagues?

Kiley McDaniel: Very little. You can narrow it down to a handful of guys you may be interested in and a resourceful person can call coaches and get velos to where you could just ask a lower level scout to go to a couple games a month, if a guy seems interesting in a spot where you could actually let him play. I’ve been involved in some successful indy signings and we only had a scout watch the player in some circumstances.

Fred: Do you have any inkling as to what FV Yusei Kikuchi might get? Or rather what kind of starter he might be?

Kiley McDaniel: League average or so, maybe 55 FV, but some concerns as stuff/performance wasn’t quite as good this year and he’s only 27. The Japanese arms usually succeed in MLB early, especially if there’s some funk in the delivery/arsenal, but often get adjusted to unless they’re an outlier in some way and I’m not sure Kikuchi is.

Alex: How honest do you think scouts and front office types are compared to the general population?

Kiley McDaniel: In non-work environments, they aren’t any different than normal people, other than drinking a lot more. For work, they probably have a similar about of biases about strong beliefs as anyone, maybe a little more

Jacob: Better projected outfield defense: Eloy Jimenez or Christin Stewart?

Kiley McDaniel: We have Stewart as a DH and Eloy as a RF

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: yo dawg this chat is spooky af

TKDC: Is Fangraphs going to give its own free agent predictions like Dave Cameron used to do? Also, when can we expect to see the results?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes and they will be done by *shuffles papers*

Kiley McDaniel: ME

Kiley McDaniel: coming out Monday, I’ll handicap the market for each guy and another FG staffer will handicap the player

Cotty: Ok so this is a terribly dumb question, but: what exactly do prospects do all winter?

Kiley McDaniel: Once the Fall League ends, mostly go home and try not to get fat, some actively work on stuff or try to improve, some play winter league in various Latin countries

GM Guy: You think BVW has any knowledge on how to organize a scouting department? Thoughts on actually scouting players below A Ball? Is that stuff just still going to be decided by Ricco, Minaya, and co?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean we don’t even know if, other than Minaya, everyone else is staying in their current roles. I would imagine BVW will lean on Minaya a good bit for those sorts of things. The decision on scouting below Low-A may be a good indicator of where this is headed.

FanGraph’s Lurker: Chances the Ray’s consolidate their middle infield prospect depth for JT Realmuto?

Kiley McDaniel: I could see that. TB certainly has the ammo to do it. ATL is another heavily rumored destination. I could see WSH, but would guess they are quieter this offseason than past years. Seems like JTR and his camp are trying to force a trade and I’d think the Archer deal is where things would start.

Kevin: Which is scarier to see, a real life actual murderous monster, or a team with no shot at the 2019 playoffs and in desperate need of a rebuild trying to compete one last time?

Kiley McDaniel: B for sure

Kiley McDaniel: I mean I could get away from the monster but kidding yourself about a window of contention? The walls are closing in just thinking about it

Thom: Will we be referring to FanGraphs as FANG-graphs for the duration of the holiday?

Trent: What makes this chat “spooky”?

Kiley McDaniel: I think we’ve answered your question Trent

Randy: If were Miami would you accept either/both or neither of these trade packages for Realmuto:  (a) K. Tucker, Cionel Perez and Max Stassi / (b) Bukauskus, C. Perez, Freudis Nova and Max Stassi

Kiley McDaniel: Can’t imagine HOU would offer Tucker but I think A would get you very close

chris: I’ve always wondered as a baseball fan – why should I care about ratings?  I’m watching baseball either way.

Kiley McDaniel: Not if you take Smoltz’s advice and go outside and kick tree stumps until the game is full of Mark Lemke’s

Luis Robert Stevenson: Do you have a guess for how many years/$$ Nate Eovaldi reaps in FA? Do you think Alex Cora gets a cut, considering how much he used Nate in the WS?

Kiley McDaniel: Had him penciled in for 3/45 before the WS, still think it’s somewhere around there

RDJR8: The most staggering thing about the Mets hire is they had a solution right in from of them with Bloom. Comes from a progressive organization, widely touted throughout the league, and the Mets go and think hiring an agent with zero experience in baseball ops….I just don’t get how an organization can come to this conclusion, even the Mets

Kiley McDaniel: This seems to be a common sentiment amongst FG-reading Mets fans. I would caution some patience since we obviously know way less about BVW than the Wilpons do. But yes, on the face, it seems like Bloom is much closer to what they need to become a perennial contender.

Just A Dude: Reported offer of Soroka+Riley for Realmuto seems a little steep, yeah? Maybe that was just at the deadline with 2.5 years of control but what would you peg as a fair value there between the teams? Or is that still close?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean if we’re using Glasnow+Meadows+Baz as a floor, Soroka+Riley seems pretty close to that range. Soroka’s injury complicates things a bit more.

Jim Bob Cooter: There has been very little new info out of Baltimore on the GM search. Does any top candidate actually want that job?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard a lot of different things there, so not really sure what to believe. Best info I have is Kim Ng and Ben Cherington are leading names and the Angelos family has said they will be more hands off. I guess we’ll see if that ends up being true.

Rod: Does the BvW hiring mean the Mets are more or less likely to sell off deGrom & Thor?

Kiley McDaniel: He said in the presser that they’re in win-now and win-future mode (or something like that). I assume that means there won’t be a tear down, which means those guys stay, at least for the winter.

Draftnik: How does scouting change in the next 5-10 years. Will hi-def video and rapsodo/scoutcast be everywhere (with technology continuing to come down in cost) so you can just sit back in Florida and watch 5 giant screens with data feeds 24/7?

Kiley McDaniel: I wondered when they announced Google Glass years ago if that meant a scouting director would sit at home and flip between games from the POV of his scouts or specially-placed cameras. We didn’t get flying cars either.

Jay: What direction do you see the Diamondbacks taking this winter? They hinted at listening to offers for some guys, but that sounds like eyewash since all teams (in theory) do this every winter. If they try to hold it together than attempt to dump Greinke/Goldschmidt, etc., in season, their returns are going to be significantly less. Then it’s definitely over for thie group.

Kiley McDaniel: I would guess cautiously try to stay competitive (avoid big contracts for guys 30+) for 2019 and if things aren’t going well, then all the 2-3 years or less of control guys (and maybe Greinke) are on the block

Aaron: FA predictions on Monday, but FA period starts Nov 3. You’ll miss out on some predictions.

Kiley McDaniel: We’ll have the projections locked in by then, so you’ll have to take our word when we tell you. Also don’t think a bunch of huge deals will be signed in the first few days. Look at how long it took for anything to happen last winter

Jacob Wohl: Do you think certain scouting grades will transition to objectivity in the future? For example, what’s holding teams back from eliminating the need for raw power grades and simply rating players based on average or max exit velo? I see the need for subjective game power, but if a guy hits a ball 116+ mph I struggle with how to give him sub 70 raw (*cough* Monte Harrison *cough*). Maybe I’m just misinterpreting what raw power is?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve had this conversation with more than a few people before, and even the specific one about when a couple crazy high exit velos replacing a raw power grade. The game is moving in this direction but I think the path to more than 1-2 teams writing most of their reports off of Trackman type stuff alone is still a long way off

Kiley McDaniel: That would definitely make my job harder, tho. Or maybe if there’s fewer scouts we’d all be better friends like the last scenes of a horror movie when almost everyone has died? This really is a spooky chat.

Brusdar Graterol: Has this last season changed my overall outlook at all?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, has moved up some. Shown more sustained control/command than in the past, stuff held up, showed some durability, etc. I think he went from 45 to 50 and has shown enough upside to move more.

M: You’re the new Mets GM! Do you: trade DeGrom? Not trade DeGrom.

Kiley McDaniel: Well the issue here is when I’m named GM, I’ve already been told/come to an understanding about how this will be handled. I would lean toward blowing it up since I don’t see a road to short-term contention with this core at this payroll level.

Kiley McDaniel: And it sounds like there needs to be some wider-ranging blowing up of processes and whatnot, so doing that in a rebuild environment at the MLB level would fit culturally. And I think Mets fans would kinda like to follow in the footsteps of Sixers fans if they knew at the end of the rainbow they would have a perennial contender. A big market rebuild is more palatable if there isn’t a long history of winning. SF would be a much tougher sell for this course of action.

Matzabal: Is it wrong of me to think the shift makes the game less entertaining?

Kiley McDaniel: Kinda depends on what you think is interesting. I think the average FG reader likes the game getting more efficient/strategic and the average non FG reader probably thinks groundouts suck while ground ball singles (and O’Doyle) rule

Kiley McDaniel: But there’s room to disagree with that characterization within those groups

Dub: I can only keep 3 of Luis Robert, Francisco Mejia, Wander Franco & Vlad Jr. Which one doesnt make the cut?

Kiley McDaniel: Robert or Mejia depending on whose time horizon/position fits your team less

James: Has any fading team trying to put it all together for “one last shot” ever actually won the World Series? Or come close?

Kiley McDaniel: There was a movie about a cop on his last case before retirement where he determined he was too old for this shit but I don’t remember a baseball game in that one so I’ll say no

Shameless Cardinals Homer: Do you ever see MLB going to a full-on NFL-style draft for both domestic and int’l?  I mean trading up/back in rounds, etc.

Kiley McDaniel: Man I hope so, but seems like the owners aren’t real interested in it

scottz: Re: the Twins hiring Baldelli – does a guy who was a prospect who never reached his peak have any more insight for current prospects than any other manager type, or is it all just dependent on how you communicate/relate?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d say being a scout and coach on a progressive MLB team are much more important context for Baldelli’s future as a manager than his playing days.

Boba Chett: Any names to watch on the J2 scene for 2019? I.e. Miguel Tejada Jr?

Kiley McDaniel: Dominican SS Robert Puason still sounds like the best guy

Davoink Showerhandel: You’re trapped in a zombie apocalypse and a zombie is running toward your group of survivors.  You need someone in your group to bean the zombie with a fastball to the dome and put him down.  You’ve only got one baseball and your group’s survival depends on someone nailing this throw.  Which prospect do you want in your group – you need a combination of velocity and accuracy to put down this zombie

Kiley McDaniel: Gotta factor in CLUTCHNESS and WILL TO KILL and that’s why I want Bob Gibson because he’ll kill the zombie, kill his zombie family, and then he’ll really go to work on him

Mayor Quimby: What’s a rough FV for Nico Hoerner?

Kiley McDaniel: In fact, we have an exact one for you here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/?type=&pos=&team=chc

Marshall: A lot of teams passed on Trout in the draft. Did the Angels’ experience with Salmon influence their willingness to make that pick?

Kiley McDaniel: I see what you did there